Hawaii Holiday Bookings Are Falling Behind. Should You Book Now?

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Hawaii’s holiday travel season may be looking a little different this year.

Some hotel operators are reporting reservations running about 15% behind last year’s booking pace, according to hospitality consultant Keith Vieira, as reported by the Honolulu Star-Advertiser on October 13.

And if you’ve been thinking about spending Thanksgiving, Christmas, or New Year’s in Hawaii but haven’t booked yet, this is worth paying attention to.

Could fewer bookings mean better hotel deals?

Possibly. But like with most things, there’s usually always a catch.

Despite softer tourism numbers this summer, Hawaii’s average hotel room rates have actually increased.

So, if you’re still considering a holiday trip, should you book now or wait to see if prices come down?

Let’s look at what’s happening and what it could mean for your vacation.

Hawaii’s holiday bookings are slowing. What’s going on?

October is an important month for Hawaii hotels.

Travelers are making their final plans for Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year’s. Hotels are also getting a clearer picture of how busy the season might be.

But this year, some properties aren’t seeing reservations come in as quickly as expected.

Keith Vieira, principal of KV & Associates Hospitality Consulting, told the Honolulu Star-Advertiser that some Hawaii hoteliers are reporting holiday bookings roughly 15% behind the same period last year.

That’s a notable development heading into one of Hawaii’s busiest travel periods.

But there’s an important distinction.

A slower booking pace doesn’t mean 15% fewer visitors will travel to Hawaii this holiday season.

The figure reflects what some hotels are seeing in advance reservations. It isn’t a statewide tourism statistic, and the final holiday numbers could still change.

Travelers may also be waiting longer to make reservations.

The question is whether those bookings eventually arrive or whether Hawaii’s high vacation costs are causing more travelers to choose somewhere else.

Hawaii’s latest tourism numbers tell an interesting story

The holiday booking report comes after a mixed summer for Hawaii tourism.

In July 2026, Hawaii welcomed slightly more visitors than the year before. But those visitors were staying for less time.

According to the Hawaii Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism (DBEDT), average trip length fell from 8.83 days in July 2025 to 7.59 days in July 2026.

That’s a 14.1% decrease.

August brought another shift.

Compared with August 2025:

• Visitor arrivals decreased 5.6%.
• Total visitor spending decreased 9.7%.
• Average length of stay decreased 10.9%.
• The average number of visitors in Hawaii on a given day decreased 15.9%.

Severe weather also affected travel in August, disrupting flights and accommodations. So we can’t blame the entire decline on higher vacation costs.

And through the first eight months of 2026, total visitor arrivals were still up 1.8% compared with 2025.

Still, the shorter stays are worth watching.

I covered this trend in more detail in my recent podcast episode, Hawaii Vacations Are Getting Shorter. Is That Bad?

For visitors, it raises an interesting question: Are people giving up on Hawaii vacations, or simply changing how they travel to make the costs work?

But Hawaii hotel prices aren’t exactly falling

Here’s where things get interesting.

You might expect hotels to lower their prices when fewer people are booking.

That hasn’t been happening consistently in Hawaii.

According to the state’s August 2026 hotel performance report:

• Average statewide hotel occupancy fell to 72.7%.
• Average nightly room rates increased from approximately $360 to $372.
• That’s a 3.3% increase in room rates compared with August 2025.

And the pattern wasn’t limited to one island.

Average hotel rates increased on Oahu, Maui, Kauai, and Hawaii Island.

Maui County had the highest average nightly rate at approximately $526, followed by Hawaii Island at $471, Kauai at $431, and Oahu at $295.

Of course, these are August averages, not current holiday booking prices.

But they tell us something important.

Hotels aren’t necessarily lowering their prices just because occupancy is softer.

Some may prefer to maintain higher rates rather than offer broad discounts.

Others may use promotions, resort credits, or special packages to attract visitors without reducing their regular room prices.

For someone considering Hawaii this holiday season, that means you’ll need to look beyond the advertised nightly rate.

Could holiday travelers find better hotel deals?

This is probably the part I’d pay the most attention to if I were still deciding whether to book Hawaii this year.

Some hotels are already advertising promotions for fall and early winter travel.

For example, Aulani, A Disney Resort & Spa on Oahu, is offering savings of up to 30% on select stays of five nights or longer between October 19 and December 23, 2026.

Meanwhile, Stay Hotel Waikiki is advertising discounts of up to 52% on eligible direct bookings for travel through December 23.

That sounds pretty good.

But there’s a catch with the Waikiki offer. You must book by October 31, pay upfront, and accept a nonrefundable reservation.

That’s a big commitment if you’re still figuring out your plans.

These promotions also don’t necessarily mean hotels are responding to the latest holiday booking slowdown. Some resorts regularly offer seasonal discounts.

Still, they show that travelers have options worth comparing.

And here’s something else to remember: A hotel advertising 30% off doesn’t automatically mean it’s the best deal.

A $500 room discounted to $350 could still cost more than a nearby hotel charging $250.

Plus, you’ll need to consider taxes, parking, resort fees, and everything else that goes into your stay.

If you’re working with a specific budget, our Hawaii Trip Cost Calculator can help you estimate the bigger picture.

Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year’s are different stories

One mistake I wouldn’t make is treating the entire holiday season as one travel period.

A hotel may have plenty of availability in early December but limited rooms during Christmas week.

And a promotion that works for a November trip might not apply between December 24 and January 3.

That’s especially important this year.

The current reports don’t tell us whether Christmas and New Year’s bookings are falling behind at the same rate as other holiday travel dates.

We also don’t know whether hotels will offer additional discounts as December approaches.

Here’s how I’d approach each period.

Thanksgiving: Check prices now, especially if you can adjust your arrival or departure dates. Compare flights and hotels before deciding whether the trip works financially.

Early December: This is a period worth checking for promotions. Several advertised fall hotel offers extend into December, before Christmas week begins.

Christmas and New Year’s: Don’t count on a holiday discount. If your dates are fixed, waiting could leave you with fewer room and flight choices.

For more planning advice, see our guides to visiting Hawaii in December and spending Christmas in Hawaii.

So, should you book Hawaii now or wait?

If you’ve been on the fence about taking a Hawaii vacation this holiday season, I wouldn’t automatically wait for prices to drop.

If you have the flexibility and you’re kinda on the fence about it going or not going to Hawaii, it’s worth waiting and watching the prices.

But I wouldn’t rush into booking just because some hotels are reporting softer demand, either.

Here’s what I’d do.

1. Figure out your total trip cost first

Start with airfare and accommodations.

Then add the costs that are easy to overlook, including transportation, hotel taxes, resort fees, food, and activities.

A cheaper room won’t help much if everything else pushes the trip beyond your budget.

2. Compare different travel dates

If your schedule allows it, look at a few different weeks.

You might find that moving your trip by several days makes a bigger difference than waiting for a hotel promotion.

Don’t limit your search to one arrival and departure date.

3. Look for refundable hotel rates

This is especially helpful if you’re booking before your plans are completely settled.

If you find a hotel rate that works, consider making a refundable reservation.

Then keep checking prices.

If a better eligible rate appears, you may be able to cancel and rebook without a penalty.

Just make sure you understand the cancellation deadline before reserving.

4. Compare hotels directly

Check the hotel’s website along with other booking options.

Some properties offer special rates, room upgrades, resort credits, or additional-night promotions.

But compare the final price and restrictions, not just the advertised discount.

5. Don’t book a trip you can’t comfortably afford

I know Hawaii is expensive.

And I know how tempting it can be to book when you see a big percentage-off promotion.

But a good deal is only a good deal if the overall trip fits your budget.

Sometimes the better decision is adjusting your dates, choosing a different hotel, shortening your stay, or planning for another time.

Why Hawaii’s slower tourism matters beyond hotel prices

There’s another side to this story.

Hawaii’s tourism industry supports businesses and workers throughout the islands.

And some are already feeling pressure.

KHON2 reported October 13 that rising operating costs and weaker tourism are causing some Hawaii restaurants to reduce hours, change operations, or close.

Big City Diner’s Windward Mall location in Kaneohe, for example, is scheduled to close at the end of October.

That closure reflects several pressures, including higher business expenses and softer demand.

For visitors, it’s a reminder that tourism numbers affect more than hotel companies.

Restaurants, shops, and locally owned businesses also depend on customers.

If you’re planning a trip, consider making room in your budget to support local businesses along the way.

What I’d watch over the next few weeks

The big question is whether Hawaii’s holiday bookings will catch up as Thanksgiving and Christmas get closer.

That could happen.

Or hotels could continue seeing softer demand and introduce more promotions to encourage bookings.

Right now, we don’t have enough information to know which direction things will go.

My advice? If you’re seriously considering Hawaii this holiday season, start comparing prices now.

Look at a few different dates, check current hotel offers, and see whether the entire trip works for your budget.

If you find something that fits, especially with flexible cancellation terms, I wouldn’t automatically wait for an even better deal.

Because while Hawaii’s holiday booking pace may be slowing, that doesn’t mean your ideal hotel or flight will suddenly get cheaper.

And if your plans are flexible, keep watching.

There may still be opportunities between now and December.

FAQs

Are Hawaii holiday bookings down in 2026?

Some Hawaii hotel operators are reporting holiday reservations approximately 15% behind last year’s booking pace, according to Keith Vieira, as reported by the Honolulu Star-Advertiser. This is not a confirmed statewide decline.

Will Hawaii hotels get cheaper for Christmas 2026?

Possibly, but there is no guarantee. Some hotels are advertising fall and early-winter promotions, but many offers end before Christmas. The latest statewide hotel data also showed higher average room rates despite lower August occupancy.

Is November or December a better time to find Hawaii hotel deals?

Both months may offer opportunities, depending on your dates and hotel choice. Several verified promotions extend into December, but many end before Christmas. Compare actual prices for your dates rather than assuming one month will always be cheaper.

Sources

Honolulu Star-Advertiser, Allison Schaefers. Hawaii’s holiday travel outlook not too merry amid high costs. October 13, 2026. Original reporting. The booking estimate was checked against a syndicated reproduction because direct article access was restricted. Fooshya

Hawaii Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism. August 2026 Visitor Spending and Arrivals Declined. September 30, 2026. Official report. DBEDT

Hawaii DBEDT. July 2026 Visitor Spending and Arrivals Increased. August 2026. Official report. DBEDT

Hawaii Tourism Authority / DBEDT. August 2026 Hawaii Hotel Performance Report. September 2026. Official PDF. Hawaii Department of Taxation

PwC. Holiday Outlook 2026. September 8, 2026. Consumer spending research. PwC

KHON2, Nathan Shinagawa. Restaurants closing and adjusting operations as prices continue to rise. October 13, 2026. Syndicated report. AOL.com

Aulani, A Disney Resort & Spa. Fall 2026 Room Offer. Official promotion. disneyaulani.com

Stay Hotel Waikiki. Your Fall Needs More Waikiki. Official promotion.