Hawaii Tourism Forecast 2026: Green Fee, Mixed Demand

HONOLULU – Planning a Hawaii trip for 2026? The Hawaii tourism forecast 2026 from state economists shows a complicated picture: fewer visitors may arrive, but the ones who do are spending more. Plus, there’s a new tax kicking in January 1 that will affect your total trip cost.

State forecasters at DBEDT and economists at UHERO have released updated Hawaii visitor forecasts showing different patterns on Maui and Oahu, driven by national policy uncertainty, rising costs, and the new statewide lodging tax increase.

Here’s what you need to know.

Hawaii Tourism Forecast 2026: Key Numbers

Two different agencies are telling slightly different stories about Hawaii travel predictions 2026.

UHERO thinks Hawaii is heading into a mild recession. They expect tourism to weaken and some job losses in certain sectors during the year. Specifically, they project visitor arrivals and the average daily visitor count to decline in 2026 before improving in 2027–2028.

DBEDT is more optimistic overall, projecting continued growth for the state economy.

Both agree on one thing: construction will be strong in 2026, thanks to major federal projects and public work.

Hawaii Visitor Arrivals 2026: Fewer People, More Spending

This is the weird part. Hawaii tourism trends are moving in two directions at once.

In October 2025, total visitor arrivals were down year over year. But total visitor spending went up 6.7%. That tells you something important: fewer people are coming, but they’re spending more per trip.

Recent state reporting confirms this pattern. The ones who visit are choosing higher-end accommodations and experiences, which keeps total spending strong even as arrival numbers soften.

The New Green Fee Tax

Starting January 1, 2026, Hawaii’s lodging tax (officially called the Transient Accommodations Tax or TAT) goes up by 0.75%. The state portion will be 11%.

That might not sound like much, but when you add it all up, it matters. Between the state tax, county surcharges, and the general excise tax, you could be paying close to 19% in taxes on your hotel room before any resort fees.

If you’re staying a week or more, or booking a pricier hotel, that extra 0.75% adds up fast.

Hotel Rates Might Flatten, But Your Bill Won’t

Even if nightly room rates stop climbing as quickly, your total cost can still go up because of the tax increase.

Some travel reports suggest that even with flat or slightly lower room rates, travelers will still feel the pinch in 2026 because of higher taxes. The Green Fee is small on paper, but it compounds over longer stays.

International vs. U.S. Travel Demand

International travel to Hawaii is still struggling.

Canadian visitors are way down. Japanese visitor numbers are still well below pre-pandemic levels, even though there’s been a small uptick recently. UHERO notes these international markets remain weak across the board.

The good news? Most visitors still come from the U.S. West and U.S. East, and that demand is holding steady. That’s why spending can stay strong even when total arrivals drop.

What You’ll Notice When You Visit

Unexpected Availability

Some travelers are reporting something strange: they’re finding openings at hotels and resorts that are usually booked solid. There are also pockets of better pricing that pop up and disappear quickly.

If you can be flexible with your dates or travel midweek, you might catch some deals that wouldn’t normally be there.

New Hotels and Flights

It’s not all about taxes and forecasts. There are new hotels and attractions opening in 2026, and airlines are adjusting their routes.

For example, Southwest just announced nonstop flights from Las Vegas to Hilo starting August 6, 2026. That’s a new option for Big Island travelers.

What This Means for Your Trip

Budget for the tax increase first. The Green Fee is small on paper, but it adds up over a longer stay or at a more expensive property. Factor it into your planning now so you’re not surprised at checkout.

Be flexible if you can. The market is rewarding flexibility more than usual right now. If you can shift your dates or travel midweek, you might find better availability and pricing.

Choose your island on purpose. Maui and Oahu can feel very different in a softer tourism year. Think about the experience you actually want, not just where you’ve been before.

FAQ: Hawaii Tourism Forecast 2026

Will Hawaii tourism decline in 2026?

Yes, forecasters expect visitor arrivals to drop slightly in 2026, but visitor spending is projected to stay strong. UHERO predicts arrivals will decline before recovering in 2027–2028, while DBEDT is more optimistic about overall economic growth.

How much is the new Hawaii Green Fee?

The Green Fee increases Hawaii’s lodging tax (TAT) by 0.75% starting January 1, 2026. The state portion rises to 11%, and when combined with county surcharges and general excise tax, total taxes can reach about 19% before resort fees.

Which Hawaii islands will be most affected by lower tourism in 2026?

Maui and Oahu may see different patterns. International visitor weakness affects Waikiki more, while Maui’s recovery from the 2023 fires continues. The U.S. mainland market remains the strongest source of visitors for all islands.

Are Hawaii hotel prices going down in 2026?

Room rates may flatten or cool slightly, but your total cost will likely stay the same or increase due to the new 0.75% tax. Some travelers are finding unexpected availability and occasional deals, especially for flexible midweek stays.